Methodology of scenario forecasting of scientific and technological development of crop production until 2030

Issue № 3, 2019, article № 1, pages 2-9

Section: Questions of methodology of economic research

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДИКА СЦЕНАРНОГО ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ НАУЧНО-ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РАСТЕНИЕВОДСТВА ДО 2030 Г.

Keywords: SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT, CROP PRODUCTION, SCENARIOS, TECHNOLOGIES, TECHNOLOGICAL ADAPTATION, TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGH

Abstract: Scenario forecasting method tailored to crop production, gives the answer to such questions as the definition of possible trajectories of development of the industry, identifying the effects of regulatory influence of the state, and also solves the problem of reducing certainty when making decisions in the rapidly changing environment of the industry. As a result of scenario forecasting, it becomes possible to identify priority areas of scientific and technological development of the industry, «end-to-end» technologies (key scientific and technical areas that have the most significant impact on the development of new markets, new markets for means of production and final products, etc.). The process of developing scenarios of scientific and technological development of the crop sector should be based on three factors of production: labor (human resources), capital (investment and means of production) and land, as they are all involved in the production of crop products. This article highlights two most likely scenarios of scientific and technological development of the crop sector until 2030: «Technological adaptation», determined by the preservation of existing trends in scientific and technological development, sustainable positive dynamics of production of most crops, imports of basic technologies of crop production, etc. and «Technological breakthrough» - a scenario aimed at achieving leadership positions in certain areas of scientific and technological development of crop production and changing the structure of cultivated and exported crops. In «pure form» these scenarios will not be implemented and the scenario «Technological adaptation» will become the basis and the initial stage of the scenario «Technological breakthrough». The latter will be implemented gradually only after the first scenario is fully implemented until 2025. Ключевые слова: научно-технологическое развитие, растениеводство, сценарии, технологии, технологическая адаптация, технологический рывок.

Authors: Rudoi Evgenii Vladimirovich, Petukhova Marina Sergeevna